Sabina Shoal: New Flashpoint in South China Sea is Dangerously Close to Palawan

Only 130 nautical miles off Palawan is a shallow shoal called “Sabina Shoal,” and it has become a potential new flashpoint in an ongoing show of force by China as it flexes its naval dominance in South China Sea.

Sabina Shoal is located in the Spratly Islands but it sits dangerously close to the Philippine Island of Palawan. A Chinese ship travelling at 25 knots from Sabina Shoal can reach Palawan in only 5.2 hours.

The latest reports indicate that Chinese militia and fishing vessels have been seen fishing and positioning buoys around Sabina Shoal, a move that has raised serious concerns among the Philippines and other neighboring countries including Vietnam. In addition to this worrying development, some analysts are also concerned about China’s overall military “flexing” in the South China Sea.

Sabina Shoal: Only 5 Hours from the shores of Palawan

Sabina Shoal is a disputed territory, and both the Philippines and China claim ownership of the shoal. The Philippines has a long history of fishing and exploration in the area, and the shoal — known by Filipino fishermen as Escoda Shoal — is within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). However, China also claims the shoal, and has been sending ships to the area in recent years.

The shoal is located in the eastern part of the Spratly Islands, about 130 nautical miles northwest of the island of Palawan and 160 nautical miles northwest of the island of Borneo. It is a small, low-lying coral atoll that is not permanently above water.

Though uninhabited and only covering an area of around 5 square kilometers, Sabina Shoal has been the mew flashpoint of potential military confrontation between China and the Philippines.

The Philippines claims Sabina Shoal falls within its exclusive economic zone as defined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. China, however, asserts historical sovereignty over the shoal and argues it forms part of the disputed Spratly Islands chain which China claims in its entirety.

China claims the shoal as part of its “nine-dash line,” which is a vast maritime claim that encompasses most of the South China Sea.

Tensions escalated in 2012 when Chinese maritime surveillance ships blocked Philippine vessels from accessing waters around Sabina Shoal leading to a months-long standoff. Though the standoff was eventually defused diplomatically, the dispute over Sabina Shoal and Spratly remain unresolved and continues to strain relations between China and the Philippines today.

The shoal’s strategic location close to major maritime trade routes gives it added significance beyond just sovereignty claims. Control over Sabina Shoal would allow China to extend its sphere of influence and maritime patrols deeper into the South China Sea at the expense of other claimants like the Philippines. Resolving the status of Sabina Shoal thus remains a sensitive issue at the heart of the broader China-Philippines dispute over territory and resources in the South China Sea.

The dispute over Sabina Shoal is one of many disputes over the Spratly Islands, a group of islands and reefs which are claimed by China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan.

The June 30 Incident

Tension gripped the area surrounding Sabina Shoal on June 30 when a fleet of 48 Chinese militia and fishing vessels were spotted in the Spratlys Islands particularly at Iroquois Reef.

A Philippine Navy patrol aircraft also tracked three Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels and 2 PLA Navy ships at Sabina Shoal. The Philippine Navy aircraft was on a routine patrol of the area, and it observed the CCG vessels anchored at the shoal.

Aerial photos were provided by the AFP, showing the Chinese fishing vessels as well as the China Coast Guard Zhaoyu class patrol cutter CG 3304 and PLAN Type 056 Jiangdao class corvette identified as CNS Tonglin (629).

In an earlier incident in 2021, the Philippine Coast Guard confronted 7 militia ships in Sabina Shoal which led to standoff.

Prelude to Illegal Occupation by China

South China Sea analysts and observers described movement of Chinese vessels in Sabina Shoal as a dangerous move that could lead to open confrontation with the Philippines.

A Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson, Commodore Jay Tarriela, said the massing of Chinese vessels in Sabina Shoal was a prelude to illegal occupation by China. He said Philippine Coast Guard will “drive away” any illegal Chinese vessels in Philippine waters.

The Filipino coast guard officio added that the Philippines would never allow any foreign entity to encroach on its territory. “It is our duty to protect and safeguard our territorial integrity,” he said.

US Ambassador to the Philippines Mary Kay Carlson has also been outspoken about China’s actions in the South China Sea. In a recent speech, Carlson said that China’s “excessive claims and activities in the South China Sea are a threat to peace and stability in the region.”

Carlson also said that the United States is committed to working with the Philippines and other countries in the region to “uphold the rules-based order in the South China Sea.” She said that the US will “continue to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows.”

The US ambassador commented that “freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea are part of a broader commitment to protecting the rights, freedoms and lawful uses of the sea enjoyed by all countries.” Carlson added that this includes “supporting regional security architectures like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).”

The US will also continue to work with ASEAN, she said, “to ensure stability in the region.”

She emphasized that this includes “advancing a Code of Conduct to manage tensions and prevent miscalculations, particularly between China and its neighbors.”

This is why the US supports the start of negotiations on a Code of Conduct, she said. Carlson concluded with a clear message: “We want to ensure that all countries in this region are able to pursue their interests peacefully and without interference.”

US sending strong signal with joint military exercises in Palawan

The United States is sending a strong signal that it will not stand idly by as tensions escalate in the South China Sea. American and Filipino troops hold joint military exercises called Balikatan and Cope Thunder in the region, sending a clear message to China that any aggressive behavior will not be tolerated.

Balikatan is an annual exercise between US and Filipino forces, while Cope Thunder is a trilateral military exercise with Singapore’s air force also participating. Both drills involve military personnel from all three countries conducting air, sea and land-based operations, strengthening interoperability between the forces.

The US has also deployed its most advanced warships—including an aircraft carrier—to the region as part of the “Freedom of Navigation” mission.

The US Navy regularly sends warships through the South China Sea to challenge Beijing’s claims over the area, which are widely seen as excessive and illegal according to international law.

These actions are ultimately aimed at deterring China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and preventing it from further militarizing the region. The US is also providing support to its regional allies, such as Japan, by helping them strengthen their naval capabilities. Despite these efforts, tensions remain high in the South China Sea and there is no sign of an end to the dispute anytime soon.

As a result, it is essential for the Philippines and its neighbors to take necessary steps to protect their EEZs and defend their sovereignty.

The country should increase its naval presence in the South China Sea, strengthen diplomatic ties with other affected nations, and use international law to counter any unlawful activities by the Chinese.

Additionally, the Philippines should actively participate in regional dialogues and work together with other nations to ensure a peaceful resolution to any disagreements or conflicts with Beijing. This will help maintain stability in the region and prevent any possible escalation of tensions.

Finally, it is important for Philippine authorities to remain aware of China’s activities in the South China Sea and be ready to take appropriate action if necessary. This will ensure that Philippine interests are protected and its EEZ remains secure.

Potential for Escalation

The US and its allies continue to press China to respect international law and adhere to the rules-based order in the region. However, China has proved unwilling to compromise so far, leaving some observers worried that a military conflict could erupt in the near future.

The June 30 incident in Sabina Shoal and the dispute over the Spratly Islands is a major source of tension in the region, and it has the potential to escalate into conflict.

The Philippine government has yet to make a statement on the incident. As tensions rise, the Philippines is likely to take action in order to protect its territorial rights. It remains to be seen what form this will take.

As of now, there is no indication that China will back down from its position.